• Catastrophe Modeling

    Climate Science, Geology, Natural Hazards, Reinsurance

    Natural hazards research is a fascinating and complex scientific problem, but more than that, it demands an understanding of the interplay between hazard, economic conditions, public policy, and the business world. The re/insurance field is at the forefront of societal risk management, but it faces a range of challenges, both near-term, with the expansion of wealth and population into high-risk metropolitan areas, and long-term, as climate change enhances the risk of extreme storm surges, floods, and heat waves.

     

    A climate scientist and geologist by training, I am passionate about bridging the gaps between sources of new knowledge in the research world and end-users in the private sector. This is a two-way street, as my collaborations with researchers at Columbia University and NASA GISS have allowed me to highlight problems in the business world that opened up fruitful new avenues of academic research. My scientific specialty is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the largest driver of year-to-year climate variability, which is where changes in the ocean and atmosphere intersect most dramatically with short-term events like hurricanes and floods. However, my geology background and experience in the reinsurance sector allow me to be comfortable working with the full suite of natural perils.

     

    I am excited to bring a flexible toolbox of stochastic modeling, geospatial analytics, machine learning, open source datasets, and social media to the field of catastrophe modeling.

  • Experience

    Chubb

    Corporate Catastrophe Solutions

    Philadelphia, PA | 2018-Present

     

    AVP, Senior Research Scientist

    Catastrophe modeling research and model validation, specializing in climate change and emerging risks.

    Chubb Tempest Re

    Stamford, CT | 2012-2017

    Formerly ACE Group, ACE Tempest Re

     

    AVP, Senior Research Scientist

    Catastrophe modeling research, specializing in El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts and climate change. 

    • Build natural hazard models for developing markets, non-modeled perils
    • Lead new research initiatives that leverage nontraditional public and open source datasets
    • Develop tools to streamline historical disaster modeling
    • Work with senior management to develop new product lines
    • Communicate insights from emerging scientific research to improve risk assessments
    • Foster connections between the reinsurance industry and academic and government research divisions
    • Manage offshore account support for Zurich office
    • Ad-hoc underwriter support for full range of natural perils - hurricane, earthquake, European windstorm, flood, severe convective storm, wildfire, etc.

    Research Scientist / Analyst

    Integrate catastrophe models from RMS and AIR with remote sensing data, environmental measurements, stochastic event models, and social media information to improve loss projections.

    University of Texas - Austin

    Austin, TX

     

    Graduate Research Assistant | 2008-2012

    Conducted research related to dissertation.  Analyzed customer samples and performed regular maintenance on lab equipment.

    Teaching Assistant | 2007-2011

    Taught 5 semesters of lab courses - 3-4 sections of ~15 students per semester. Helped lead two field courses. Developed new climate lab curriculum.

     

    Lab:

    Climate: Past, Present, and Future

    Sustaining a Planet

    Physical Geology 

     

    Field:

    Field Geology - Summer field camp

    Honors Undergraduate Short Course - Florida Keys

     

     

    Anadarko Petroleum

    Denver, CO | 2008

     

    Geology Intern

    Assessed >900 well logs for coalbed methane potential.  Utilized literature review and stratigraphic information from logs to propose a model constraining reservoir size and distribution.  Collaborated with engineering team to estimate economic potential.

    Carleton College

    Northfield, MN | 2005-2007

     

    Lab Assistant

    Global Change Biology

    Sedimentology and Stratigraphy

    Paleobiology

    Introduction to Geology

    University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

    Alexandria, MN | 2005

     

    Ecology Intern

    Field assistant for prairie ecology study on Echinacea angustifolia.

  • Technical Skills

    RMS

    RiskLink

    AIR

    Touchstone, CATRADER

    Python

    Previously: Matlab, Java, C++

    GIS

    MS Access, SQL

    Adobe Suite

  • Education

    University of Texas - Austin

    Ph.D., 2012

    Geological Sciences - El Niño, Paleoclimate, Climate Change

    Carleton College

    B.A., 2007

    Geology, Biology

  • Professional Society Memberships

    AGU

    American Geophysical Union

    ISCM

    International Society of Catastrophe Managers

  • Publications

    The frequency and duration of US hurricane droughts

    TM Hall and KA Hereid

    2015

    Geophysical Research Letters

     

    NASA GISS Best Publication Award, 2015

     

    We estimate the mean wait time for the 2006-2014 US major hurricane landfall drought to be greater than 175 years, and find that this wait time is not dependent on drought duration.

    Coral record of reduced El Niño activity in the early 15th to middle 17th centuries

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, C-C Shen, RL Edwards, H Cheng 

    2013

    Geology

     

    Coral record of a century-scale period of low El Niño activity during the Little Ice Age. A switch between active and inactive El Niño states of this duration has not previously been recorded, and provides a new baseline for climate models and reconstructions.

     

     

     

    Assessing spatial variability in El Niño–Southern Oscillation event detection skill using coral geochemistry

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, YM Okumura

    2013

    Paleoceanography

     

    Paleoclimate proxies do not always record El Niño and La Niña with equal skill due to the varying spatial structure of each event type. Coral records in the central Pacific have a balanced response toward ENSO events, but the Western Pacific Warm Pool favors El Niño expression, and the South Pacific Convergence Zone preferentially records La Niña events.

  • Media

    NASA videos explaining hurricane droughts study (Hall and Hereid, 2015, GRL).

    10 year gap in US major hurricane landfalls continues.

    NASA video describing hurricane droughts study (Hall and Hereid, 2015, GRL).

    See more commentary via NASA GISS feature here.

  • Featured Stories

    Man-made earthquakes in Oklahoma - A headache for insurers

    The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying

    Yes, the US is on a historic lucky streak in dodging major hurricanes

  • More Press

    The U.S. Enters a Historic 10-Year 'Hurricane Drought'

    No major US hurricanes in 11 years. Odds of that? 1-in-2,300.

    What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.

    Tons Of People Are Moving To The Coast Amid A Lull In Hurricanes

    Experts warn against complacency as U.S. endures hurricane drought

    US hurricane drought is 'basically dumb luck', scientists say

    U.S.' Longest 'Hurricane Drought' Due to Sheer Luck, Study Finds

    U.S. in longest 'hurricane drought' in recorded history

    Major hurricane 'drought' for U.S.? Yes, researchers say

    We've been in a hurricane drought for nine years

    May the odds be ever in our favor

    No major US hurricane landfalls in nine years

    Here is The The Chance of A Major Hurricane Hitting The U.S. Coast this Year

  • Conferences

    Industry Geoscientist Panel

    M Bove, S Bowen, KA Hereid, K Roberts

    Industry Geoscientist Panel

    M Bove, S Bowen, KA Hereid, B Wood

     

    Human-Induced Earthquakes Keep Oklahoma Rumbling

    KA Hereid

    An introduction to reinsurance for scientists

    KA Hereid, Invited

    RAA 2016

    Why Does Oklahoma Have More Earthquakes than California? Emerging Human-Induced Earthquake Risk

    KA Hereid

    RAA 2015

    El Niño: Impacts on global disaster risk

    KA Hereid

    EGU 2014

    A multi-proxy perspective on climate variability in the tropical Pacific over the last millennium

    TM Quinn, JW Partin, K Thirumalai, KA Hereid, CR Maupin, C-C Shen, FW Taylor

    AGU 2011

    ENSO variability at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, RL Edwards, H Cheng, C-C Shen

    AGU 2010

    ENSO variability during the Little Ice Age from the perspective of a long coral record from the Western Pacific Warm Pool

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, C-C Shen, JL Banner

    Outstanding Student Paper Award

     

    Tales from the South (and West) Pacific in the Common Era: A Climate Proxy Perspective (Invited)

    TM Quinn, FW Taylor, JW Partin, CR Maupin, KA Hereid, MK Gorman

    AGU 2009

    Interannual to multi-decadal scale climate variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool recorded by the geochemistry of 16th-17th century corals from Papua New Guinea

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, JL Banner

    AAPG 2009

    Modern isolated carbonate platform dimensional database collected from publicly available image catalogs

    S Bachtel, R Phelps, KA Hereid, J El-Azzi, EM Dunn, D Helbert, P Cardona, R Caber, K Singh, B Kiel

    AGU 2008

    Sea surface temperature from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (Misima Island, Papua New Guinea) using the geochemistry of modern and pre-industrial corals

    KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor

  • Outreach

    Guest speaker at CUNY CREST/NWS High School Summer Weather Camp

    8/2016

  • Projects

    Demo projects leveraging public datasets.

    Allocate points with values based on where exposure is likely to be - based on nighttime lights data.

    Extract location characteristics, zip code aggregate data using Zillow API.

    Calculate historical expected losses for hurricane, earthquake events that fall within shape defined by lat/lon, using a user-provided payout structure.

  • Twitter Feed