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    • Catastrophe Modeling

      Climate Science, Geology, Natural Hazards, Reinsurance

      Natural hazards research is a fascinating and complex scientific problem, but more than that, it demands an understanding of the interplay between hazard, economic conditions, public policy, and the business world. The re/insurance field is at the forefront of societal risk management, but it faces a range of challenges, both near-term, with the expansion of wealth and population into high-risk metropolitan areas, and long-term, as climate change enhances the risk of extreme storm surges, floods, and heat waves.

       

      A climate scientist and geologist by training, I am passionate about bridging the gaps between sources of new knowledge in the research world and end-users in the private sector. This is a two-way street, as my collaborations with researchers at Columbia University and NASA GISS have allowed me to highlight problems in the business world that opened up fruitful new avenues of academic research. My scientific specialty is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the largest driver of year-to-year climate variability, which is where changes in the ocean and atmosphere intersect most dramatically with short-term events like hurricanes and floods. However, my geology background and experience in the re/insurance sector allow me to be comfortable working with the full suite of natural perils.

       

      I am excited to bring a flexible toolbox of stochastic modeling, geospatial analytics, machine learning, open source datasets, and social media to the field of catastrophe modeling.

    • Experience

      Chubb

      Corporate Catastrophe Solutions

      Philadelphia, PA | 2018-Present

       

      AVP, Senior Research Scientist

      Catastrophe modeling research and model validation, specializing in climate change and emerging risks.

      Chubb Tempest Re

      Stamford, CT | 2012-2017

      Formerly ACE Group, ACE Tempest Re

       

      AVP, Senior Research Scientist

      Catastrophe modeling research, specializing in El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts and climate change. 

      • Build natural hazard models for developing markets, non-modeled perils
      • Lead new research initiatives that leverage nontraditional public and open source datasets
      • Develop tools to streamline historical disaster modeling
      • Work with senior management to develop new product lines
      • Communicate insights from emerging scientific research to improve risk assessments
      • Foster connections between the reinsurance industry and academic and government research divisions
      • Manage offshore account support for Zurich office
      • Ad-hoc underwriter support for full range of natural perils - hurricane, earthquake, European windstorm, flood, severe convective storm, wildfire, etc.

      Research Scientist / Analyst

      Integrate catastrophe models from RMS and AIR with remote sensing data, environmental measurements, stochastic event models, and social media information to improve loss projections.

      University of Texas - Austin

      Austin, TX

       

      Graduate Research Assistant | 2008-2012

      Conducted research related to dissertation.  Analyzed customer samples and performed regular maintenance on lab equipment.

      Teaching Assistant | 2007-2011

      Taught 5 semesters of lab courses - 3-4 sections of ~15 students per semester. Helped lead two field courses. Developed new climate lab curriculum.

       

      Lab:

      Climate: Past, Present, and Future

      Sustaining a Planet

      Physical Geology 

       

      Field:

      Field Geology - Summer field camp

      Honors Undergraduate Short Course - Florida Keys

       

       

      Anadarko Petroleum

      Denver, CO | 2008

       

      Geology Intern

      Assessed >900 well logs for coalbed methane potential.  Utilized literature review and stratigraphic information from logs to propose a model constraining reservoir size and distribution.  Collaborated with engineering team to estimate economic potential.

      Carleton College

      Northfield, MN | 2005-2007

       

      Lab Assistant

      Global Change Biology

      Sedimentology and Stratigraphy

      Paleobiology

      Introduction to Geology

      University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

      Alexandria, MN | 2005

       

      Ecology Intern

      Field assistant for prairie ecology study on Echinacea angustifolia.

    • Technical Skills

      RMS

      RiskLink

      AIR

      Touchstone, CATRADER

      Python

      Previously: Matlab, Java, C++

      GIS

      MS Access, SQL

      Adobe Suite

    • Education

      University of Texas - Austin

      Ph.D., 2012

      Geological Sciences - El Niño, Paleoclimate, Climate Change

      Carleton College

      B.A., 2007

      Geology, Biology

    • Professional Society Memberships

      AGU

      American Geophysical Union

      ISCM

      International Society of Catastrophe Managers

    • Publications

      Google Scholar

      The frequency and duration of US hurricane droughts

      TM Hall and KA Hereid

      2015

      Geophysical Research Letters

       

      NASA GISS Best Publication Award, 2015

       

      We estimate the mean wait time for the 2006-2014 US major hurricane landfall drought to be greater than 175 years, and find that this wait time is not dependent on drought duration.

      Coral record of reduced El Niño activity in the early 15th to middle 17th centuries

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, C-C Shen, RL Edwards, H Cheng 

      2013

      Geology

       

      Coral record of a century-scale period of low El Niño activity during the Little Ice Age. A switch between active and inactive El Niño states of this duration has not previously been recorded, and provides a new baseline for climate models and reconstructions.

       

       

       

      Assessing spatial variability in El Niño–Southern Oscillation event detection skill using coral geochemistry

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, YM Okumura

      2013

      Paleoceanography

       

      Paleoclimate proxies do not always record El Niño and La Niña with equal skill due to the varying spatial structure of each event type. Coral records in the central Pacific have a balanced response toward ENSO events, but the Western Pacific Warm Pool favors El Niño expression, and the South Pacific Convergence Zone preferentially records La Niña events.

    • Media

      NASA videos explaining hurricane droughts study (Hall and Hereid, 2015, GRL).

      10 year gap in US major hurricane landfalls continues.

      NASA video describing hurricane droughts study (Hall and Hereid, 2015, GRL).

      See more commentary via NASA GISS feature here.

      Harnessing the Power of Social Media in Atmospheric Science

      AMS Board for Private Sector Meteorologists

    • Featured Stories

      Insurance Information Institute

      Man-made earthquakes in Oklahoma - A headache for insurers

      ThinkAdvisor

      Changing weather may alter retirement plans

      Washington Post - Capital Weather Gang

      The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying

    • More Press

      Yes, the US is on a historic lucky streak in dodging major hurricanes

      NPR

      The U.S. Enters a Historic 10-Year 'Hurricane Drought'

      CityLab / The Atlantic

      No major US hurricanes in 11 years. Odds of that? 1-in-2,300.

      Arstechnica

      Tons Of People Are Moving To The Coast Amid A Lull In Hurricanes

      FiveThirtyEight

      Experts warn against complacency as U.S. endures hurricane drought

      Artemis

      US hurricane drought is 'basically dumb luck', scientists say

      The Guardian

      U.S.' Longest 'Hurricane Drought' Due to Sheer Luck, Study Finds

      NBC

      U.S. in longest 'hurricane drought' in recorded history

      CBS

      Major hurricane 'drought' for U.S.? Yes, researchers say

      New Orleans Times-Picayune

      We've been in a hurricane drought for nine years

      May the odds be ever in our favor

      Popular Science

       

      No major US hurricane landfalls in nine years

      Phys.org

      Here is The The Chance of A Major Hurricane Hitting The U.S. Coast this Year

      AGU Blog-Wild Weather Dan

    • Conferences

      RAA 2018

      Industry Geoscientist Panel

      M Bove, S Bowen, KA Hereid, K Roberts

      RAA 2017

      Industry Geoscientist Panel

      M Bove, S Bowen, KA Hereid, B Wood

       

      Human-Induced Earthquakes Keep Oklahoma Rumbling

      KA Hereid

      Severe Convection and Climate Workshop 2016

      An introduction to reinsurance for scientists

      KA Hereid, Invited

      RAA 2016

      Why Does Oklahoma Have More Earthquakes than California? Emerging Human-Induced Earthquake Risk

      KA Hereid

      RAA 2015

      El Niño: Impacts on global disaster risk

      KA Hereid

      EGU 2014

      A multi-proxy perspective on climate variability in the tropical Pacific over the last millennium

      TM Quinn, JW Partin, K Thirumalai, KA Hereid, CR Maupin, C-C Shen, FW Taylor

      AGU 2011

      ENSO variability at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, RL Edwards, H Cheng, C-C Shen

      AGU 2010

      ENSO variability during the Little Ice Age from the perspective of a long coral record from the Western Pacific Warm Pool

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, C-C Shen, JL Banner

      Outstanding Student Paper Award

       

      Tales from the South (and West) Pacific in the Common Era: A Climate Proxy Perspective (Invited)

      TM Quinn, FW Taylor, JW Partin, CR Maupin, KA Hereid, MK Gorman

      AGU 2009

      Interannual to multi-decadal scale climate variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool recorded by the geochemistry of 16th-17th century corals from Papua New Guinea

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor, JL Banner

      AAPG 2009

      Modern isolated carbonate platform dimensional database collected from publicly available image catalogs

      S Bachtel, R Phelps, KA Hereid, J El-Azzi, EM Dunn, D Helbert, P Cardona, R Caber, K Singh, B Kiel

      AGU 2008

      Sea surface temperature from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (Misima Island, Papua New Guinea) using the geochemistry of modern and pre-industrial corals

      KA Hereid, TM Quinn, FW Taylor

    • Outreach, Service, Educational Lectures

      Guest, University of Texas - Austin, Geology Foundation Advisory Council

      4/2019

       

      UCAR/NSF Coastlines and People Workshop

      9/2018

       

      Re/insurance as a geoscientist career outreach talks

      Chubb Agency Education webinar - CAT Modeling & the Impact on Rate

      7/2018

       

      ISCM Education Seminar - Basics of Catastrophe Modeling Hazards

      9/2017

       

      Guest speaker at CUNY CREST/NWS High School Summer Weather Camp

      8/2016

    • Projects

      Demo projects leveraging public datasets.

      Disaggregate

      Allocate points with values based on where exposure is likely to be - based on nighttime lights data.

      Zillow API

      Extract location characteristics, zip code aggregate data using Zillow API.

      Parametric

      Calculate historical expected losses for hurricane, earthquake events that fall within shape defined by lat/lon, using a user-provided payout structure.

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